Pakistan National Assembly dissolved: What happens next in the crisis-hit nation?

The instability in Pakistan is almost permanent. Political turmoil continues even as the country battles with its worst-ever economic crisis. Amid all the uncertainty, Pakistan dissolved its Parliament late Wednesday on Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s advice.

Pakistan president Arif Alvi dissolved the National Assembly, marking the end of the tenure of the current government. A statement from the president’s office said that he acted on the advice of PM Sharif in disbanding the lawmakers as the assembly’s five-year term is ending. This is the first step in the countdown to the general election.

The decision comes as Imran Khan, former Pakistan premier and now the country’s top Opposition leader, has been barred from politics for five years.

We take a look at the political situation in Pakistan and what can we expect in months to come.

What does the dissolution of Pakistan’s National Assembly mean?

In late July, Sharif made a surprise announcement that his government’s tenure would end early. “Next month our government will complete its tenure, [but] we will leave before the completion of our tenure and an interim government will come in,” PM Shehbaz had said. He later said that the date would be 9 August.

The five-year term of the National Assembly, the lower house of the Pakistan parliament, started on 12 August 2018 and would have remained active until 12 August 2023. However, the premier’s announcement meant that the assembly would dissolve early – even if it was by three days.

According to Article 52 of the Pakistan constitution, the National Assembly undergoes a dissolution upon completing its five-year term, which is counted from the day of its first session, reports Dawn.

“This structured dissolution is more than a mere formality — it is a democratic mechanism that provides citizens with the opportunity every five years to cast their votes and elect a new government,” the report says.

The National Assembly can also be dissolved if the PM recommends it as is the case this time. If the president does not do so within 48 hours of the PM’s advice, the assembly automatically stands dissolved. Once this happens, all members of the Cabinet cease to hold office, the Dawn reports.

Also read: Does Pakistan’s Imran Khan have a future in politics after being jailed?

What happens after the dissolution?

After the dissolution of the National Assembly, a process to appoint a caretaker prime minister will begin under Article 224-A of the Pakistan constitution. Sharif and Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly Raja Riaz will hold consultations to finalise the name of the interim prime minister.

If they fail to agree on the name within three days, the matter will go to the parliamentary committee for the appointment of a caretaker prime minister. Under the law, the premier and the opposition leader will send their respective names for the coveted post to the parliamentary committee.

The parliamentary committee will have to finalise the name of the caretaker prime minister within three days or if it too failed to reach a consensus on the name, then the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) will pick the caretaker prime minister within two days from the names proposed by the opposition and the government.

When will elections be held in Pakistan?

Since the assembly has been dissolved before time, the ECP would hold elections within 90 days. If the National Assembly had completed its constitutional term, the polls would have been held within 60 days, but in case of dissolution before time, the elections should be held within 90 days, reports news agency Press Trust of India.

However, it’s not as straightforward in Pakistan. A further delay in the election is possible if Pakistan’s election commission opts for redistricting, based on the results of a recent census. The poll body said that electoral boundaries must be redrawn to reflect fresh census data, a process that could take months.

An Election Commission of Pakistan official told the BBC, “The elections will be held once the census is done, which will take about four months’ time. As a result, the elections may be delayed till next year.”

What does Shehbaz Sharif want?

The Pakistani government is reportedly in favour of postponing the elections as it struggles to contain the security and political challenges that threaten to further cause instability in the cash-strapped country.

The polls, some feel, are being delayed as the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) coalition is not confident about winning. Imran Khan is far more popular than Sharif and the economic uncertainty could hinder the chances of the current establishment from returning to power.

What does this mean for Imran Khan?

The cricketer-turned-politician, who came to power in 2018, has had a fallout with the country’s powerful military and is facing its consequences.

After a no-confidence vote that led to his removal as PM in April 2022, he was slapped with more than 150 cases on charges of corruption and even murder. Last week, he was arrested and jailed after a court sentenced him to three years in prison for corruption in the Toshakhana case. He has been barred from politics for five years as those convicted of a criminal offence cannot contest elections in the country.

Who could be Pakistan’s next PM?

It is hard to say as the situation is volatile. The current PM Shehbaz Sharif said that his brother Nawaz Sharif will be Pakistan’s next premier if the ruling PML-N returns to power. Nawaz Sharif, 73, has been living in self-imposed exile in the UK since November 2019.

With inputs from agencies

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