Unravelling complexities: Niger's coup, regional dynamics and foreign influences

On 26 July, 2023, the democratically elected president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum, was removed by the presidential guard. This led to the formation of the National Council for Safeguarding the Homeland (CNSP), composed of senior officials from various security forces.

Within the next day, initial pro-democracy protests subsided, while new demonstrations in support of the coup surfaced. The Nigerien armed forces aligned with the CNSP, signalling their reluctance to engage with the presidential guard and risk plunging Niger into a civil war.

Comprehending Niger’s intricacies is a challenging endeavour. Situated in the Sahel region, the country ranks among Africa’s most impoverished nations, despite possessing valuable resources like uranium, coal, and gold within its vast territory. Similar to numerous African states, Niger holds memberships in both the African Union and two regional economic communities: ECOWAS for West Africa and the now-defunct CENSAD for the Sahel.

Niger, Chad, Mali, and Burkina Faso are currently under the governance of coup leaders, with Mali experiencing coups in both 2020 and 2021, followed by Guinea and then Burkina Faso and Chad in 2022. These nations, except for Chad, have been suspended from the African Union (AU). Surprisingly, Chad’s former prime minister holds the position of Chair of the AU Commission. Meanwhile, Libya to the north remains unsettled, and Algeria, which shares a significant border with Niger, is opposed to intervening. This situation necessitates cautious collaboration between Nigeria and Niger.

In India, Niger was primarily recognised for its flag, reminiscent of the Indian tricolour but distinguished by a saffron circle replacing the Ashok Chakra. Despite this visual association, India’s interaction with Niger is limited. An embassy in Niger represents India, albeit currently without an ambassador. India notably constructed the Mahatma Gandhi International Convention Centre, hosting the African Union summit in this distant nation. Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, conducted a visit to Niger in January 2020, during which Niger held a seat on the UN Security Council. Although traditionally influenced by France, Niger’s relationship with this influence has become a potential element of the prevailing challenges.

Breaking down the intricacies, Niger holds significance in the anti-terrorism struggle. US and France each maintain 1,000-1,500 troops in the nation, alongside drone bases. These deployments were established in cooperation with Niger and were particularly embraced following coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, which hindered their operational capacities in those regions.

The European Union (EU) maintains a modest contingent of around 100 troops, joined by similarly sized groups from Italy, Germany, and other nations. These units have closely collaborated with the junta’s leadership.

However, the junta leaders are currently declining meetings with representatives from various organisations including the African Union (AU), EU, United Nations (UN), and ECOWAS. The sole envoy they have engaged with thus far is acting US Deputy Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland. This connection is established through a discreet channel facilitated by the US Special Forces units, with whom the junta leaders have cooperated.

The central concern revolves around whether this junta’s actions will weaken the counterterrorism efforts. As of now, there is limited evidence indicating any Russian influence supporting the junta or the involvement of the Wagner group. Notably, the coup in Niger coincided with the Russia-Africa summit held in St Petersburg. While concerns persist that Russia, directly or through Wagner, might aim to enhance its influence in Niger at the expense of the US and France, there is no conclusive proof of Russian-backed involvement in the coup.

In terms of the regional context, both the AU and ECOWAS encounter obstacles in their efforts. Notably, there have been 10 coup attempts in Africa within the past three years. Interestingly, countries suspended by the AU appear to continue functioning without significant consequences. The more recent coup in Sudan arises from internal rivalries. Similarly, evidence suggests the presence of internal rivalries in Niger. The civilian president, who was democratically elected, attempted to curtail defence expenditures, particularly targeting the role and power of the presidential guard—a deeply entrenched interest. Regrettably, a compromise could not be reached.

Consequently, the presidential guard orchestrated the coup, with the primary institutionalised army refraining from direct involvement. Strikingly, the main army has not contested the coup and is seeking to cooperate with the new authorities. This mirrors the current approach being pursued by US as well.

ECOWAS issued strong statements, but the involvement of certain members who share a similar situation with Niger, especially Burkina Faso and Mali, complicates unanimous decision-making.

Since decolonisation, France has exerted considerable control, both in terms of finances and security, over numerous West African nations. Many Africans believe that the French role in Africa requires reevaluation, as it is perceived to have outlived its usefulness and is met with resentment. The prevalence of repeated coups in several French West African countries, coupled with instances of Russian influence, underscores the lack of appreciation for the French role, thereby fuelling emerging sentiments of resentment. This sentiment is intertwined with new waves of nationalism, which emphasise the value of democracy while opposing France’s guidance and interference.

Despite being a remote nation, Niger’s significance is underestimated. It deserves greater attention and comprehension, rather than being solely viewed through the lens of significant power rivalries.

Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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