Why are three former Indian military chiefs at a security conference in Taiwan?
General Manoj Naravane, Admiral Karambir Singh and former Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria are attending the Ketagalan Forum in Taiwan. Experts warn a full-scale conflict between Beijing and Taipei could have a negative impact on India and its economy
File image of former army chief General MM Naravane. PTI
Three Indian former military chiefs are at a security conference at Taiwan.
General Manoj Naravane, Admiral Karambir Singh and former Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria are attending the Ketagalan Forum – an event hosted by the Taiwanese foreign ministry that focuses on the Indo-Pacific.
The development comes in the backdrop of Taiwan saying that 10 Chinese aircraft, accompanied by five Chinese warships, entered its airspace and engaged in ‘combat readiness’ patrols.
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Taiwan said this is the second such incursion this week.
But why are the former military chiefs in Taiwan? And where would India stand in case of a conflict?
Let’s take a closer look:
Why are they in Taiwan?
According to Mint, India and Taiwan are seeking to boost strategic cooperation in light of a shared common threat from China.
“Taro Aso, former Prime Minister of Japan and current member of the House of Representatives and Vice President of the LDP, and Andrus Ansip, former Prime Minister of Estonia, will deliver keynote speeches. The roster of other guests comprises 14 parliamentarians, political figures, scholars, and experts from 12 countries, including Admiral Karambir Singh, Chairman of India’s National Maritime Foundation,” Mint quoted a press release from Taiwan’s foreign ministry as reading.
India Today reported that the former military chiefs are set to meet Taiwanese leadership and provide India’s views.
According to India Today, New Delhi is looking into what it could do if indeed such a crisis between China and Taiwan were to occur.
Leadership is more and more coming around to the view that such a crisis would lead to a bad fallout for India and its economy.
Part of leadership is thus of the opinion that Taiwan should be backed against China.
The office of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan has tasked the services to provide an array of options for New Delhi if China and Taiwan escalate into a full-scale conflict.
Where would India stand in case of a China-Taiwan conflict?
That’s the question that is yet to be answered.
New Delhi currently follows the ‘One China’ policy.
It has not established formal diplomatic relations with Taipei.
Sources in the South Block told India Today New Delhi may need to reconsider its ‘One China’ policy if Washington makes such an ask.
Mint reported that India and Taiwan are currently cooperating on, among other things, training programmes for Indian officers.
The Print quoted army chief General Manoj Pande in February as warning that China believes in the ‘might is right policy’.
Pande added that Beijing is seeking to displace Washington as the provider of security around the world.
What do experts say?
Some have argued that India must prepare for such a crisis.
A piece in OROF Online, comparing the current Taiwan-China crisis to the Cold War, warned that New Delhi’s outlook seems to be based on its hopes rather than concrete policy.
“A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan will change the political and military balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Politically, it would finally extinguish US hegemony in the region,” the piece warned.
The piece stated that while the US would retreat, Southeast Asia would be left facing the choice of bowing to China’s wishes or developing nuclear weapons.
“Most importantly, a victorious Beijing will have no reason to accommodate India. The pressure on India’s borders will ratchet up because of the newfound confidence of China’s military and leadership,” the piece stated.
The piece argued that for New Delhi, the military consequences would be far worse than the geopolitical matters.
“If Beijing conquers Taiwan, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) assets currently dedicated to the Taiwan theatre will be available to be deployed along its other unsettled border in the Himalayas. The constant refrain among the Indian military thinkers of PLA being untested in battle will vanish, and Indian armed forces will be forced to confront a highly motivated force,” the piece stated.
A piece in The Times of India in July stated that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan may lead to semiconductors in Taipei being destroyed.
“Taiwan produces 90 per cent of advanced semiconductor chips used in critical industries and electronic devices globally. TSMC, its flagship semiconductor manufacturer, fabricates 92 per cent of advanced chips for American firms. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan will wipe out $1 trillion every year from the global economy over the next few years and see China railroading the global economy,” the piece warned.
Others have called on New Delhi to substantially increase its cooperation with Taipei.
A piece in The Print in August called for India to develop direct ties with Taiwan, but to try to tamp down on any possible conflict.
“Greater economic partnership with Taiwan should be followed up by encouraging the domestic manufacturing sector, removing all impediments, liberalising tax laws and strengthening the supply chain mechanism. Economic strength will be a key factor in determining leadership in the emerging world order,” the piece argued.
According to New Indian Express, Taiwan is set to open its third diplomatic representative in India by the end of this year.
Taiwan, which will open an office in Mumbai, already has offices in Delhi and Chennai.
“In recent years, cooperation between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the Republic of India has witnessed significant progress in numerous domains, including economics and trade, science and technology, critical supply chains, culture, education, and traditional medicine. In light of this development, the R.O.C. (Taiwan) government will establish the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center (TECC) in Mumbai in order to further deepen exchanges and cooperation between the two countries,” Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs was quoted as saying in a press release.
Taiwan-China tensions continue
Taiwan, which China claims as its territory, has repeatedly complained of Chinese military activity near it over the past three years, as Beijing steps up pressure to try to force the island to accept its sovereignty.
Taiwan’s defence ministry said that starting at around 9 am, it detected a total of 25 Chinese aircraft engaging in operations out at sea, including J-10 and J-16 fighters, as well as H-6 bombers.
Of those aircraft, the ministry said 10 had either crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which previously served as an unofficial barrier between the two sides, or entered the southwestern part of Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, or ADIZ.
Those aircraft were acting in coordination with five Chinese warships engaging in “combat readiness” patrols, it said.
Taiwan’s military dispatched ships and aircraft to keep watch, the ministry said.
The ADIZ is a broad area Taiwan monitors and patrols to give its forces more time to respond to threats, and Chinese aircraft have not entered territorial Taiwanese air space.
On Sunday, Taiwan reported a similar level of activity by Chinese warplanes and warships near the island.
China staged war games around Taiwan in April after President Tsai Ing-wen returned home from a visit to the United States where she met US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Last August, it also held war games around Taiwan to protest against a trip to Taipei by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Taiwan Vice President William Lai leaves for the United States this week on his way to Paraguay on what is officially only a transit but which has angered China.
It was China’s “priority” to stop Lai from visiting the United States, Beijing’s ambassador to the U.S. said last month.
Taiwan’s democratically elected government rejects China’s sovereignty claim and says only the island’s people can decide their future.
India-China face-off
All this comes in the backdrop of India forces and China’s PLA being entrenched in a face-off along the Line of Actual Control for more than three years.
Indian and Chinese troops last clashed along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh on 9 December.
The ties between India and China nosedived significantly following the fierce clash in the Galwan Valley in June 2020 that marked the most serious military conflict between the two sides in decades.
Both sides gradually enhanced their deployment by rushing in tens of thousands of soldiers and heavy weaponry.
Following the eastern Ladakh standoff, the Indian Army significantly bolstered its operational capabilities along the LAC in the eastern theatre.
The eastern theatre largely comprises the border areas along the LAC in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh and the frontier areas have a number of sensitive forward locations including in the Tawang and North Sikkim sectors.
The Army put into place an effective surveillance apparatus and there has been a substantial improvement in overall monitoring of the areas in the last two years, military officials said.
In September, Eastern Army Commander Lt Gen Rana Pratap Kalita said that the Indian Army is continuously monitoring activities of the PLA along the LAC and is well-poised to mitigate any challenges.
“We are also continuously monitoring the activities along the borders. We are vigilant and observant of each and every development along our borders,” he said.
India has been maintaining that its relationship with China cannot be normal unless there is peace in the border areas.
India has been ramping up the development of infrastructure along the near 3,500-km LAC following the eastern Ladakh standoff that began on 5 May, 2020.
With inputs from agencies
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